Futuring via brainstorming and visioning – Jim’s Bucket List

The assignment this time is to brainstorm all the things that I would do if I had no limits: unlimited time, talent, money, and so forth. Well, not all, but to try for at least 25. The categories are Research/Study, Education, Philosophical /Religious, Travel, Fun, Home, Self and Family. Some of the topic areas were easy to find 25 things, and more, that I would like to do. (see my table of topics and activities following this discussion) Others were more difficult and I failed miserably at two:  Philosophical /Religious and Family!

My professor stated that she did this exercise (or a similar one) as a graduate student back in 1995, and that it inspired her to accomplish many of the items on her list over the past 16 years.

In my case, while it is a vision of things-that-I-want-to-be, it is also a bit of a Bucket List (the list of all the things that you want to do before you kick the bucket) for me. I quite imagine that my professor was in her 20’s when she did her Bucket List, which meant that from that time forward, she had 50 – 80 years to accomplish its items. My fellow students are all in their 30’s, so they can look forward to 40 – 70 years in their Bucket plans, while I, on the other hand, turned 60 this year, so that I have only 20 – 40-or-so years for mine, a more limited span of time, and definitely no set of unlimited funds! (Though to be fair, neither did the professor nor do the other students!)

However, thinking about this made me remember things that I had planned to do over the years that never happened or were put off for later and forgotten, or just said that they were not possible! When people ask me if what I would do differently in my life, I honestly answer that, while the idea of changing something to make my life easier at that point is tempting, I would change nothing for I like the way things in my life are now and I would not risk losing what I have for a moment of might-have-been-better! I hope that my decisions were good, and good for my family, many did result in less monetary return than if I had chosen differently!

The exercise of creating the Bucket List, however, showed me that, in many ways, my basic desires have not changed over the years: Study, Teach, Research and Invent. I continue to enjoy both studying and teaching. I read all kinds of magazines on technology and science, and have continued to be creative. Many of my “inventions” were not much – I developed microwave scramblers years before they appeared on QVC – but others were pretty good. All of the FedEx Distributed Service teams used the Move-to-Production project plan that I developed back in 1996! In fact, one of the reasons that I want to attain my Doctorate is to be able to be taken seriously in the development of my ideas for Haptic Displays! Many of the items, if I am going to accomplish them, need me to simply knuckle down and apply myself, others are probably unrealistic (like the flying house/flying island), but are fun to dream about! Some I will just have to settle for a subset of, but I still do have at least 20 years ahead of me, so who knows what I mind accomplish!

To paraphrase Martin Luther King, Jr., "I have a dream - and a man ain't nothing without a dream!"

Research/Study	Education	Philosophical/Religious
1.       Kung Fu 2.       Tai Chi 3.       Haptic displays (vibro-tactile, special fluids and polymers) 4.       Electro-muscle stimulation 5.       Dog intelligence and training 6.       Greek language 7.       Latin Language 8.       Chinese language 9.       Japanese language 10.   CAD/CAM design 11.   Microprocessor design 12.   Ancient History 13.   Paleontology 14.   Philosophy 15.   Blacksmithing 16.   Metal working for knives, swords, etc. 17.   Cartooning 18.   Sonar 19.   Fencing (martial) 20.   Sculpture 21.   Carpentry 22.   Music – drums, piano, harpsichord, etc. 23.   Armor design 24.   Astronomy 25.   Religion 26.   Brewing Beer 27.   Making Whiskey	1.       Ph.D.  CS 2.       Ph.D. EE 3.       Ph.D.  Physics 4.       Ph.D. Comparative Religions 5.       Study at MIT 6.       Study at CMU 7.       Study at UCLA 8.       Study at Sorbonne, FR 9.       Teach at MIT 10.   Teach at CMU 11.   Teach at UCLA 12.   6th Degree Black Belt 13.   Kung Fu/Tai Chi Master 14.   Master Magician 15.   Clown College 16.   Gymnastics under a Circus artist 17.   Fencing under an Olympic master 18.   Start a school to assist the ‘at risk’ students 19.   Teach at the War College 20.   Study at Oxford, UK 21.   Teach at Oxford, UK	1.       Study at Shaolin Temple 2.       Study at the Vatican 3.       Study in Jerusalem 4.       Study at an Ashram (Hindu)
Travel	Fun	Home
1.       Singapore, 2.       Hong Kong, 3.       Mt. Fiji (hike to top), 4.        Tokyo, 5.        Athens, 6.       Paris, 7.       Mexico a.       Chichenitza b.      Mazatlan c.       Puerto Valarta d.      Etc. 8.       Central America (Mayan Ruins) 9.       Peru 10.   Brazil 11.   New York 12.   New England in the Fall 13.   Cruise around the world 14.   Fiji 15.   Hawaii 16.   Easter Island 17.   Crete 18.   Rome 19.   Moscow 20.   Around the work underwater (like in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea)	1.       Hike the 14-ers in CO 2.       Hike Mt Fiji 3.       Visit the London Museum 4.       Conduct research in all the areas that I am interested in. 5.       Develop my ideas for inventions 6.       Train my pets 7.       Learn to Juggle 8.       Learn to do Magic tricks 9.       Gamble in Vegas, Reno and Monte Carlo 10.   Write Books 11.   Blog my thoughts to 1,000’s of fans 12.   Teach 13.   Create art 14.   Design and make blade weapons 15.   Collect Comic Books 16.   Collect blade weapons 17.   Watch all the movies I would like to 18.   Learn to throw a boomerang 19.   Play with my grandchildren 20.   Enjoy time with my children and their families 21.   Enjoy time with my wife 22.   Enjoy time with my extended family 23.   Enjoy time with friends 24.   Attend plays 25.   Attend concerts 26.   Attend comedy shows 27.   Attend the circus	1.       Flying house to travel to visit family and places 2.       Flying island for the house to rest on 3.       “Underwater RV” to sail on and under the water 4.       Large screen flat panel TV’s in all rooms 5.       Man-cave a.       Home Theater b.      Home Sound Studio c.       Music Room 6.       Computer Room 7.       Contractor on call! 8.       Tom Swift’s lab in the back a.       Manufacturing lab to build what I design 9.       Pool (inside and outside) 10.   Hot Tub (inside and outside) 11.   Sauna 12.   Jacuzzi tubs in all bathrooms 13.   Bedroom and bathroom suites for everyone 14.   Really great kitchen 15.   Formal and informal dining rooms 16.   Game room 17.   Home Gym 18.   Home Dojo 19.   Video Conference room 20.   Full Satellite channel access 21.   Home Office for me 22.   Home Office for Sara 23.   Great Library
Self	Family
1.       No more need for BP or Cholesterol meds 2.       No more weight problems 3.       Travel with family (my nickel) 4.       Establish homes for orphans – as many as possible 5.       Establish animal shelters 6.       Read the great (and no so great) classics 7.	I have only one wish for my family: that they be healthy and happy in their lives.

CS855 Week 7 Assignment - podcast from the future

This just in from the future:

C855 Week 6 Assignment Part 2 Redux – Twiki

C855 Week 6 Assignment Part 2 Redux – Twiki

Well, I guess I did not read the description of the task in detail and did a less than  optimal job, so here is the new, improved version of the task to “Introduce a cool Web 2.0 tool to support Socio-Technical Innovation and Describe two of its features and how it supports innovation”.

On further research, as much as I enjoy the functionality of Picasa, it really does not support Socio-Technical Innovation, other than as a means of creating audio-video slideshow/movies.

The Web 2.0 Tool that I believe is best for use with STS Innovation is Twiki, which is an open source enterprise-capable wiki and web 2.0 application platform.  TWiki is flexible, powerful, and easy to use application that can create an enterprise wiki, collaboration and/or web application platform. It is typically used for creating and running project development spaces, and includes a document management system, knowledge base, and other groupware tools, on an intranet, extranet or the Internet. Its features include:

• ·         Works with any web browser
• ·         Edit link at the bottom of every page to assist the user to edit a page
•     Web pages are linked automatically.
•     Easy text formatting rules. Basically you write text like you would write an e-mail.
•      Search included.
•    Uploads and downloads any file as an attachment to a page by using your browser in a way similar to file attachments in an e-mail.
•      All changes are tracked and previous page versions can be retrieved. 
•     Content is merged automatically if more than one user edits a page at the same time.

                                  Example of TWIKI use and functions from the twiki.org website.

TWiki supports innovation by fostering information flow within an organization, letting distributed teams work together seamlessly and productively, and eliminating the one-webmaster syndrome of outdated intranet content.

TWiki got interviewed by well known blogger Robert Scoble: "How Work is Changing with the Open Source Wiki Pioneers: TWiki." See it on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ns6P7MdQb0&feature=player_embedded

CS855 Week 6 Assignment Part 2 – Coolest Web 2_0 Tool: Picasa!

CS855 Week 6 Assignment Part 2 – Coolest Web 2_0 Tool: Picasa!

In my opinion, the coolest Web 2.0 tool in recent years is Picasa from Google! I use it all the time to edit my photos and to create CD’s and slide shows of my pictures for family and friends! I have a flickr account, but so many of my relatives are NOT internet people, that sending CD’s seems the best way to go.

It has a simple to use interface that is extremely intuitive and can do all the fancy picture editing (red eye remove, lighting adjust, contrast, cropping, rotating, and so forth) and all at the touch of a button!

Here is a short movie from pictures that my wife and I did to create a picture book of our dog for our Granddaughter!

CS855 Week 6 Blogpost: Analysis of the Futurist Prediction for Virtual Reality.

CS855 Week 6 Blogpost: Analysis of the Futurist Prediction for Virtual Reality.

As I have been dealing with VR for my innovation, I thought that this would be the best prediction for me to work with. In Halal’s Technology's Promise, the prediction is:

“the Internet will be dominated by VR about 2015. . . Our experts agree VR is likely to enter homes and offices about 2016, allowing virtual meetings with life-like 3D images, intimate conversations with distant friends, and almost any type of social transaction.”

This prediction is based upon what the TechCast.org sees as recent advances in VR technology: 3D stereoscopic imaging in movies, computer screens and televisions; internet immersion applications that allow users to walk around virtual objects in virtual ‘rooms’ and hold meetings with other virtual users (avatars);video games that are presented in realistic 3D (though on a 2D TV or computer screen) and increased use of video conferencing systems, plus other technology announced as under development by SONY, the US DoD, CISCO and Japan.

In my opinion, some of the prediction is a little conservative, for recent advances in 3D projection/display for movies, TV’s and computer monitors are already here and 3D rendering of images for video games and movies is commonplace and is fast enough to no longer require years of “post production” work as was necessary for such earlier films as “Who Framed Roger Rabbit” (1988).

Full 3D movies (requiring special glasses, though not the old-style blue-and-red paper ones) and computers and televisions providing 3D via electronic glasses, plus movies video games, and television shows with animated characters or special effects rendered to look 3D-on-a-2D-screen  are all available now, with varying levels of success. Most successful are the 3D-on-a-2D-screen  video games and some 3D movies. The recent failure of several 3D movies (“Mars Needs Moms” comes to mind) has shown that 3D alone cannot guarantee success, and people (children in particular) really hate to wear those special glasses to get the 3D effect!  Both my Instructor and my son who works in Special Effects have reported that the glasses often give the wearer headaches. My son says it comes from major cognitive dissidence between what is being displayed to the individual optic nerves, but regardless of the cause, people that watch lots of TV (like me) or play lots of video games (like my other son and grandson) will not wear something that gives them migraines!

This seems to show me that people are willing to accept the less-than-full 3D effects as good-enough until the technology for no-glasses and headaches 3D becomes available.

Recent advances in VOIP and Video-conferencing systems, while not 3D, are allowing people to make video-calls for business and personal use, so VR is not really needed at this time, and until VR becomes secure, easy to use, and able to be quickly rendered for fast response, it will not be accepted into common use in the business world. The prediction assumes that the Internet interface is high-speed  (Which is pretty much a given for most businesses) and that the video card of the user’s computer is able to adequately process the images, something that no PC that my  business provided me  could do, and something that I do not believe is available for all devices. Good response and 3D imaging for video games requires either a dedicated video console or an upgraded Desktop or laptop system with a fairly advanced video card and lots of video RAM. The movies and games produced for mobile devices are pretty good, but not at all up to video game console standards.

My class uses Second Life to demonstrate its capability, and, while some of the class and my instructor seem to get good results, my laptop (and others that I have access to) never produces anything except slow, jerky responses and even slower rendering that gives me a less than enjoyable experience. Second Life has many adherents, both personal and business, but is far from becoming the center-of-the-cyberverse that it has been hyped to be.

But that is now, the prediction was for internet “domination by VR [by] 2015” and in common use in homes and businesses by 2016. I believe that we will have glasses-free 3D by 2016 and full acceptance into the home and office by 2021. I base this on the fact that many of us, myself included, do not immediately go and buy a new media system until it has been proven that the bugs are out. Now, the 3D that I envision is one that is more of what the sci-fi novels used to call a “holo-tank”, one that projects objects out into the area in front of the “screen” of the device. In last year’s move, Gamer, the director showed the home of a rich, spoiled teen-ager with full 3D capability, virtual controls and screens floating in space around the user and reacting to gestures, while another user had regular, non-3D screens that also reacted to gestures, but still required keyboards and remote controls!

The final piece of the prediction is that VR on the web will allow “virtual meetings with life-like 3D images, intimate conversations with distant friends, and almost any type of social transaction” to done in 3D meeting areas, chat rooms, and VR Video calls. This I am not sure about. On the one hand, the present generation is actually moving toward texting, tweeting and IM’ing and away from live phone calls (I have to text my own sons and grandson to get any real-time response; phone calls go to voice mail and I get a call-back hours or days later! On the other hand, they are becoming very comfortable with interacting in groups online via the various video games such as World of Warcraft and Call of Duty. Should the VR avatars be able to ‘talk’ just with text and look like things other than just the user, then they may be readily accepted for personal use. In the video conferences that I attended at work, many folks did not want to be ‘on camera’, but wanted to see everyone else, so the VR meetings, where people could attend from their desks and always look well-groomed, and be able to multi-task without the others being able to see what they are doing (as opposed to obviously checking email in a real meeting room), might help that problem. Again, the PCs used by the average business employee would have to be strongly video-capable, but in the next 5 – 10 years the capability of the least of our smartphones will probably exceed that of the best videogame consoles available today!

In summary, here are my thoughts on Techrast.org’s predictions:

VR to dominate the Internet  by 2015	Optimistic. More like 2021
VR in our homes and offices by 2016:	Pessimistic – some already there As envisioned by TechCast, more like 2021 Until 3D tech (SW & HW) improves, it will stay on the sidelines and mostly used for entertainment.
Meetings in VR in 2016	Pessimistic – some already there, As envisioned by TechCast, more like 2021
VR conversations in 2016	Pessimistic – some already ther As envisioned by TechCast, more like 2021
VR social interactions in 2016	Pessimistic – some already ther As envisioned by TechCast, more like 2021

References

Halal, W. (2008). Technology's Promise: Knowledge on the Transformation of Business and Society. Palgrave Macmillan, NY. ISBN-13: 978-0230019546

Mars Needs Moms (2011). IMBD. Retrieved on 5/15/11 from http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1305591/

Gamer (2009) IMBD. Retrieved on 5/15/11 from http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=Gamer

CS855 Week 5 Social Technical Planning for the KADACTYL (KAGE + CAD/CAM + Dactyl) CAD/CAM system using the Waldactyl (Waldo + Dactyl) glove haptic feedback system

CS855 Week 5 Social Technical Planning
For the Week 5 Blog post (which is a week late) I am to imagine for a moment that I have been asked to develop a socio-technical plan for a particular goal in 10-20 years.
I have chosen to discuss an innovation idea that will revolutionize the CAD/CAM industry
I have created a fictional company, Kraken Arts Grasp Engineering (KAGE, Inc.), a company that is deeply involved in CAD/CAM systems.
The issue that they are facing is the lack of a common interface for /CAM, tele-operation and “Virtual Art” applications and force-feedback haptic devices
STS Plan

Introduction - 10-20 year vision - addressing a problem or a new innovation
I. Introduction - 10-20 year vision - addressing a problem or a new innovation
    a. Problem - A common interface is needed for CAD/CAM, graphical arts and teleoperation applications
        1. Present applications use different interfaces, command structures and interface devices.
        2. Users/operators have to be trained on each system
        3. Interfaces not human analogs of actions
   b. 5 – 10 Years - Innovation
       i. KAGE will develop the Waldactyl haptic glove and KADACTYL CAD/CAM System to address                   CAD/CAM and graphic arts areas.
           1. System will use motion sensors on the monitors
           2. Gloves will use magnetic/electroactive polymers to provide haptic feedback
                 a. Electro/magnetic polymer muscles will auto-fit to the user
           3. Gyroscopes within the gloves’ bracelets will provide kinesthetic feedback to 3D movement.
           4. Communication will be via Bluetooth/Bluetooth-next-generation standard protocol.
           5. API will be released Open-source so that other companies can adapt the
                Waldactyl gloves for their own systems/equipment.
   c. 10 – 20 Years
        i. KAGE will develop a full haptic-capable VR suit based upon the Waldactyl technology.
           1. Modular: helmet, lab-coat (jacket and pants), jacket, pants, boots & gloves.
                a. Suit will close magnetically, modules connect magnetically, no cable-connectors
      ii. Gloves will be adapted to appeal to non-business/non-computer-graphic users.
          1. Add color- and shape-changing capacity to external surface.
           2. “Shape-apps” like ring-tones made available.
II. Scope - how much are you doing?
     a. Development of Waldactyl glove technology and KADACTYL software CAD/CAM system.
          i. Outputs compatible with standard CAD/CAM, Numeric controller and new 3D Printers.
     b. Release of Waldactyl API Open Source
III. Purpose and Goals -- why do it?
      a. A common interface is needed for CAD/CAM, graphical arts and teleoperation applications
          i. Present applications use different interfaces, command structures and interface devices.
             1. Users/operators have to be trained on each system
             2. Interfaces not human analogs of actions
      b. KADACTYL System that combines our new Waldactyl haptic gloves with CAD/CAM design and
           simulation software.
           i. User will be able to touch, move and experience the materials and controls they are using.
IV. Supporting Forces - what will help to realize it?
     a. Technical:
           i. Move toward touch- and gesture-based interfaces
              1. Smartphone, tablet and e-book reader interfaces
              2. Wii and Kinect Videogame systems
          ii. Advances in haptic technology
              1. Electroactive/magnetic-active polymers and fluids
              2. Haptography to take ‘haptic pictures’ of shapes and tectures
         iii. Interest in VR and more human-analog interfaces.
        iv. Development of the 3D printer
    b. Social/cultural:
        i. Move to more human-analog interfaces
        ii. Acceptance of technology as a part of life
        iii. Drive for massive customization
       iv. Return of technical hobbyists
            1. Advanced CAD/CAM, usable by non-tech, along with 3D printers will
                allow for custom art and modelling
V. Challenging Forces (risk) - what may hinder or block it?
      a. Historical:
          i. This is new and Industrial Design is very conservative
     b. Personal:
         i. People do not like to wear gadgets
        ii. Poor interface design can make the use of gloves and gestures klugey and tiring
VI. Methodology (approach) - how will we approach it?
     a. The new KADACTYL System will be approached in layers:
         i. KAGE’s present CAD/CAM system will continue to be updated and
            supported as an independent CAD/CAM application
             1. Voice commands added to standard interface
        ii. An interface level for the Waldactyl technology:
             1. Waldactyl “input” technology – motion/position sensor software development
                  for calculating hand position, tasks and gesture control.
             2. Waldactyl “output” technology – VRML/XML command structure to provide
                  haptic control of the glove technology
      iii. Physical Development of the Waldactyl glove
            1. Electroactive polymers and magnetic responsive fluids to provide haptic and
                kinesthetic feedback to the user
                    a. Extra sensors for fine-detail glove position data to interface
                     b. Development of the auto-fit functionality
             2. Gyroscopic controls in the ‘bracelet”/base of the glove for ungrounded
                 3D resistance to glove movement.
          iv. Final Integration of the parts
VII. Model - a visual representation of it.
            a. Auto-fitting the gloves

        b. Using the gloves for Virtual Pot Throwing

VIII. Analytical Plan - how will we recognize success?
         a. When the Three pieces of KADACTYL –
               CAD/CAM, Waldactyl input and output work together seamlessly.
         b. Customers buy the new system for a profit.
IX. Anticipated Results - what will success look like in 10-20 years?
        a. Waldactyl gloves are the standard interface for haptic feedback
        b. Waldactyl gloves are in common use with other devices: video games,
             cell phones, etc. – virtual keyboards, music simulation (guitar) and many more.
X. Conclusion - Summary with observations - including the global impact.
      a. None yet.